Bitcoin miners have been under increased scrutiny as concerns grow over a potential capitulation. The slowing down of hash rate increases, rising operational costs, and a falling asset price have all contributed to this speculation. Analyst James Check recently discussed miner-side sell pressure in a video on June 21, noting that miners selling after a halving event and a reduction in block subsidies is a common occurrence.
Check analyzed the Puell multiple, which indicates that miners are not currently experiencing extreme stress but are still facing challenges. He mentioned that if the market continues to decline, miners may enter a state of capitulation, although they are currently on the edge. Additionally, he highlighted a “hash ribbon inversion,” which occurs when the 30-day moving average of the hash rate falls below the 60-day moving average. This signals a period of difficulty for weaker miners who may have to shut down unprofitable rigs. Despite a 4% overall decline in hash rate, which is less than previous periods of stress, miners are likely distributing some of their treasury without engaging in a complete fire sale.
Fellow analyst Willy Woo also commented on the situation, stating that bitcoin will recover once weak miners exit the market and hash rate rebounds. He noted that miner capitulation post-halving has been prolonged, possibly due to ordinal inscriptions boosting profits. The current situation does not feel like a typical bear market capitulation, suggesting that miners are not in a state of complete distress.
In terms of the BTC price outlook, Bitcoin dropped to a five-week low of $63,550 on June 21 but managed to recover to $64,000 during Asian trading on Saturday. Analyst Don Alt emphasized the importance of a particular level on the weekly timeframe, stating that a break below $60,000 could lead to a further decline to the next support level at $52,000. This could trigger miner capitulation and additional selling pressure. Alt’s analysis indicated that if the support level holds, new all-time highs for BTC could be likely.
Overall, the current situation with Bitcoin miners is being closely monitored by analysts as they assess the potential for miner capitulation. Various factors, such as hash rate declines, operational costs, and asset price fluctuations, are contributing to speculation about the future of miners in the market. While some indicators suggest that miners are facing challenges, others point to a more stable situation that may not lead to a full-scale fire sale. The BTC price outlook remains uncertain, with analysts like Don Alt highlighting key support levels that could impact the market’s direction in the coming weeks. As the industry continues to evolve, monitoring miner activity will be crucial in understanding the broader trends within the cryptocurrency market.
