The latest betting trends on crypto betting site Polymarket show that more than $7 million has been wagered on U.S. President Joe Biden dropping out of the election. Following his performance in the first 2024 Presidential Election debate against Donald Trump, the odds of Biden leaving the race have spiked to 38%. Despite this, the biggest political betting pool on the site, with $191 million at stake for the winner of the election, indicates a 63% chance of Trump winning in November. Despite being a convicted felon awaiting sentencing in July, Trump remains a favorite among bettors.
Polymarket, which recently received $70 million in funding, has seen over $328 million bet on various aspects of the U.S. election. Some of the bets have been rather unusual, such as wagering on whether Biden would close his eyes for more than 3 seconds during the debate or soil himself while standing at the podium. There are also bets on whether independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will win or place second in any state, as well as the likelihood of Biden accepting crypto donations before August. The increased interest in these bets coincides with the $60 million pool for predicting the Democratic nominee after the national convention in August, with Biden currently holding a 61% chance.
The Democratic nomination race shows Biden as the frontrunner with a 61% chance of clinching the nomination, down from 90% less than 24 hours ago. California Governor Gavin Newsom follows with 16%, and Vice President Kamala Harris at 8%. There is also speculation that an unnamed candidate could take the nomination, with higher odds than Michelle Obama or Hillary Clinton. Biden’s debate performance has already sparked discussions and cartoons about his speech, with some declaring that “it’s over” for him.
Following the debate, meme coin traders seem to have capitalized on Trump’s perceived win, resulting in a 6% drop in the PolitiFi meme coin category. Trump-themed coins like MAGA, MAGA Hat, and TREMP have dipped around 7%, while the BODEN coin, representing a misspelling of Biden’s name, has plummeted by 35%. On the other hand, coins like KAMA, OBEMA, and KENIDY have gained 129% in the past day. These political meme coins are known for their extreme volatility and should be approached with caution.
Interestingly, the largest political meme coin, ConstitutionDAO’s PEOPLE governance token, has seen a 6% increase in the past day despite not being related to the election. The DAO made headlines in 2021 for attempting to buy a copy of the U.S. Constitution but has been inactive since then. The fluctuations in meme coin values reflect the unpredictable nature of these investments and the impact of political events on their prices. Overall, the betting and meme coin markets continue to be influenced by the latest developments in the U.S. election race and public sentiments towards the candidates.