The recent assassination attempt on former United States President Donald Trump during a campaign rally has shocked analysts, who have labeled it a “true black swan event.” Surprisingly, this unexpected incident has had a positive effect on the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin (BTC), which surged above $60,000. This is a rare occurrence, as black swan events typically lead to market downturns. Before the rally, Bitcoin was struggling to stay above $60,000 and was at risk of dropping below $55,000.
Crypto analyst Stockmoney Lizards noted this unusual trend in a post on July 14, pointing out that Bitcoin has historically experienced significant price drops following black swan events. For example, in 2012, the collapse of Mt. Gox caused Bitcoin to plummet by 96%, while the 2014 Bitfinex hack led to an 87% drop. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 resulted in an 84% decline, and the 2022 FTX collapse saw Bitcoin fall by 78%. However, the assassination attempt on Trump has defied this pattern, leading to a bullish response in the market. This could be the first black swan event to result in gains for the crypto market.
Despite the attempt on his life at a campaign event in Pennsylvania, Trump’s defiant response has fueled speculation about his chances of re-election. Trump’s support for cryptocurrencies and plans to make the US a leader in the industry have also contributed to the positive market response. He is set to participate in various crypto events, including the Bitcoin Conference, despite the shooting incident. Analysts are closely watching Bitcoin’s next moves as it surpasses the $60,000 mark, with expectations of sustained growth driven by political uncertainty and Trump’s pro-crypto policies.
To get a glimpse of how Bitcoin might perform in the future after the assassination attempt, Finbold consulted OpenAI’s latest AI tool, ChatGPT-4o. The tool predicted that by the end of 2024, Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high and trade in the range of $80,000 to $120,000, assuming no other major adverse events and continued interest in cryptocurrency. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $59,980, with a 2.5% increase in the last 24 hours and over 5% gains on the weekly chart. Maintaining support above $60,000 and reaching the $60,600 level are seen as crucial for sustaining these gains.
It’s important to note that the content provided should not be considered investment advice, as investing in cryptocurrencies is speculative, and there is a risk of losing capital. The unexpected turn of events surrounding the Trump assassination attempt has created a unique situation in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin defying the traditional response to black swan events. As the market continues to react positively, analysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s next moves and predicting potential price targets for the coming years. Traders and investors are advised to stay informed and exercise caution when making investment decisions in the volatile cryptocurrency market.
