Bitcoin made history last week when it surpassed $100,000 for the first time, but the upward trend paused as the price fell back below $100,000. Analysts remain optimistic about BTC reaching new highs, but one expert believes that it is unlikely to happen until January. Sean Dawson, the head of research at DeFi derivatives protocol Derive, stated that the chances of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by January 2025 are low, with only a 6% probability of exceeding that level.
The derivatives market also suggests a limited chance for Bitcoin’s momentum to continue rising, with Ethereum also facing a small probability of reaching $6,000. According to Dawson, Ethereum has a 10.5% probability of hitting $6,000 by the end of January. These predictions are based on data from the derivatives market, specifically the 25 delta curve, which measures the market’s bias between calls and puts.
The stability of the 25 delta curve indicates that investors’ expectations regarding the price direction have not changed significantly. This suggests that the market has consolidated its position over the weekend, with little movement in either direction. Despite the temporary setback in Bitcoin’s price, analysts remain hopeful that it will continue to rise in the coming months.
While Bitcoin may have fallen below $100,000 again, the overall sentiment remains positive. Investors are still anticipating BTC to reach new highs, with many expecting it to surpass $100,000 in the near future. However, analysts caution that the road to higher price levels may be challenging, with limited probabilities of Bitcoin exceeding $150,000 by January.
The derivatives market provides valuable insights into the potential price movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Analysts like Sean Dawson use this data to make informed predictions about the future performance of these cryptocurrencies. Despite the current stability in the market, there is always the possibility of unexpected events causing significant price changes in the world of digital assets.
In conclusion, while Bitcoin’s price may have fluctuated recently, the overall outlook remains positive. Analysts expect BTC to continue its upward trajectory, with potential for new highs in the future. The derivatives market data provides valuable insights into the probabilities of Bitcoin and Ethereum reaching specific price levels, guiding investors in their decision-making process. Despite the uncertainties in the market, it is essential for investors to stay informed and make decisions based on reliable data and analysis.
